Tag Archives: NEPAL

Making Sense of the Political Tsunami in Nepal

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Published in The Hindu (online) on March 14, 2026

As a landlocked country, Nepal has gone through both geological and political earthquakes in recent years but the snap election held on March 5 has been nothing short of a political tsunami. The old political parties have barely scraped through and the Rashtriya Swatantra Party (RSP), which is less than five years old, has won 125 seats out of the 165 first-past-the-past FPTP seats; with 57 proportional representation (PR) seats, it has a total tally of 182, just two short of the two-thirds mark, an unprecedented outcome in a Nepali election. Most of the political leaders who have dominated the Kathmandu scene for the last quarter century will be missing when the new House is convened. However, the RSP leaders now face a bigger challenge – of converting a stable majority into institution-based policy formulation and good governance team to deliver on the high expectations generated.

Crisis after crisis

Barely had the 21st century begun when Nepal went through its first major political crisis. On June 1, 2001, at a family dinner at the Narayanhiti Palace, Crown Prince Dipendra killed nine members of the royal family, including his father, King Birendra, and his mother, Queen Aishwarya. As Nepal mourned, he died three days as a result of a self-inflicted gun wound. King Gyanendra took over, marking a turning point for the two-century old Shah dynasty.

Meanwhile, Nepal was also struggling with a Maoist insurgency that finally ended by 2006 with the political mainstreaming of the Maoists. In the Terai, the Madhesi movement had gained momentum, backing demand for a federal structure. During his seven years, King Gyanendra changed prime-ministers six times and even abolished the National Assembly to impose direct rule. However, the political parties were able to lead a Jan Aandolan that forced him to retreat.

A Constituent Assembly (CA) was elected in 2008 that voted to abolish the monarchy marking Nepal’s second major political change. The CA’s mandate was to draft a constitution for a federal democratic Nepal in two years. The process turned out to be politically difficult and took considerably longer. After another CA election mandated by the Supreme Court in 2013, a new constitution was finally adopted in 2015.   These seven years saw six prime-ministers. The reason was simple. Both the 2008 and the 2013 elections failed to throw up clear majorities, and the leaders of the political parties – Nepali Congress (NC), Communist Party of Nepal -United Marxist Leninist (UML), Maoists and the Madhesi parties – devoted their time to jockeying for positions in the coalition governments.

The 2015 constitution marked Nepal’s third political turning point but the expectations of the much-awaited dawn of a naya Nepal were soon belied. From 2015 to 2025, Nepal saw seven prime-ministers but the faces were the same – UML leader K P Sharma Oli thrice, NC leader Sher Bahadur Deuba twice, and Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda twice.

The lavish lifestyles of the political elite went viral on social media accompanied by tales of corruption and impunity of ‘nepo-babies’. The disconnect between a young Nepal with a median age of 26 years and a self-absorbed political leadership in its 70s, was combustible. The spark came when the Oli government banned 26 social media websites (including Facebook, X, WhatsApp, LinkedIn, Signal, YouTube, and Instagram) on September 4 for failing to comply with domestic regulations. Resentment erupted as Gen Z protests on 8-9 September, leading to widespread looting and arson across Nepal. With 77 deaths due to police firings, Prime Minister Oli was forced to resign.  

Former Chief Justice Sushila Karki was sworn in on September 12 to head an interim government. According to the Constitution, an interim leader should have been from the Assembly but given the anger against all the political parties, President Ram Chandra Poudel’s choice was guided by public sentiment. Ms. Karki made it clear that her goal was to ensure inclusive and peaceful elections within six months and she has delivered on her promise by bringing Nepal back on the constitutional path.

Message of the 2026 election

The Gen Z protests brought down the Oli government. The decimation of the old political forces in the 2026 elections mark 21st century Nepal’s fourth political transformational moment. Beginning 2008, when Nepal introduced PR seats along with FPTP to ensure a more balanced political representation, none of the last four elections (in 2008, 2013, 2017 and 2022) saw any political party manage a clear majority. Most Nepali observers had blamed the PR system for political instability and unwieldy coalitions. However, RSP’s victory puts that myth to rest.

The number of MPs, under 40, has gone up to 61 out of 165 FPTP members, and 52 are from RSP. NC has slipped from 89 seats in 2022 to 18 and UML from 78 to 9. Both parties had seen calls for leadership changes after the Gen Z protests. In the UML, K P Sharma Oli managed to stave it off leading to his ignominious defeat in his home constituency that he had represented since 1991, by 35-year-old Balendra (Balen) Shah, a former mayor of Kathmandu, fighting his first assembly election. NC managed an organisational reshuffle with 51-year-old Gagan Thapa easing out 79-year-old five-time PM Sher Bahadur Deuba but it happened too late to improve NC’s prospects. All the pro-Monarchy and Madhes parties have been wiped out. Evidently, identity politics (Madhes/Pahad, Khas Arya/Janjati, secularism/Hindu rashtra) was not a factor in 2026.

The credit for RSP’s victory goes to its founder chairman Rabi Lamichhane and Mr. Shah who joined the party in December-end on the understanding that while Mr. Lamichhane would continue as the party chairman, he (Balen) would be the party candidate for PM. He, together with the party symbol ghanti, became the face of the RSP campaign. It was a politically sound decision because Mr. Lamichhane’s short stint in government following the 2022 elections, as Deputy PM was marked by controversies. The first was on account of the fact that he hadn’t renounced his U.S. citizenship, and the second is an ongoing criminal case regarding financial embezzlement from a number of cooperative societies. But such was the pro-RSP wave that out of its tally of 125, 42 MPs are those who defected from other parties less than eight weeks before the elections.

Success raises its own challenges. The RSP spelt out ambitious targets in its manifesto – ensuring 7% annual growth, doubling the per capita income to $3000 and GDP to $100 billion, creating 1.2 million formal jobs to curb the daily youth migration running at 3300, delivering universal health insurance and integrated social security, and reforming public education.

Among the promised administrative and political reforms are – reducing ministries from 25 to 18, bringing in experts as ministers so that MPs only exercise oversight, merit-based bureaucracy and judiciary, a review of assets of all public officials since 1990, and constitutional amendments for a directly elected Executive with a fully PR parliament. Mr. Lamichhane and Mr. Balen will have to show that they can work together to prioritise elements from this list and put together a core team that can deliver.

Managing external relations

On the foreign policy front, establishing ground rules for relations with India, China and the U.S. will be another challenge. As Mayor of Kathmandu, Mr. Shah has been temperamental and kept aloof from media, relying instead on his social media outreach. In a country with a population of 30 million, he enjoys a following of 3.7 million on Facebook and a million on Instagram. Even during the election campaign, he spoke at only five events, for a total of 27 minutes. He is a Madhesi by birth, speaks Maithili but did not exploit it. His messaging doesn’t rely on speeches and TV interviews but social media.

His outbursts can be mercurial; last November his Facebook, “F…America F…India F…China F…UML F…congress F…RSP F…RPP F…Maobaadi You Guys all Combined can do Nothing (Smiley)” generated criticism before he deleted it. In 2023, in response to the unveiling of the mural of Akhand Bharat in India’s new parliament building, he put up a map of Greater Nepal in his office that showed parts of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and West Bengal as part of Nepal. He declared that “India called its parliamentary map a cultural one, so we put up a historical map of Greater Nepal. No one should object”.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has spoken to both Mr. Shah and Mr. Lamichhane to congratulate them and both sides have conveyed their intention to strengthen and deepen bilateral relations. Mr. Lamichhane has talked of Nepal pursuing the path of “development diplomacy”. Given the changes in Nepal, India will need to be careful about reiterating the old mantras of cultural, historical and religious ties and invoking tropes of Ayodhya-Janakpur, Kashi-Pashupatinath and, roti-beti ka rishta; it should now invest in developing a new idiom of responding to the naya Nepal. 

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The Turmoil in Kathmandu, the Road Ahead for Nepal

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Published in the Hindu on Sptember 27, 2025

The Gen Z protests that erupted in Kathmandu on September 8, 2025,  snowballed rapidly, taking the Nepali government by surprise. The excessive police reaction led to an explosion of public anger, and the rapidly evolving situation forced Prime Minister K. P. Sharma Oli to quit the following day, creating a vacuum that even the Gen Z protestors were unprepared for.

Following talks between the Gen Z representatives and the Chief Of Army Staff Gen A. R. Sigdel, former Chief Justice Ms Sushila Karki was sworn in as Interim Prime Minister on September 12, with the mandate to conduct fresh elections within six months. The current parliament has been dissolved, an apolitical cabinet of  experts is taking shape, and calm has returned to the streets.

Elections have been fixed for March 5, 2026 but questions persist. How will the Gen Z organise themselves around a political platform? Will the established political parties be ready? Meanwhile, suggestions are afoot for amending the constitution but this may open a Pandora’s box in the absence of process legitimacy.  

A turbulent phase in India’s neighbourhood

The decade of the 2020s has witnessed political changes in India’s neighbourhood – in February 2021, the experiment with democracy in Myanmar collapsed as the military assumed full control; later in 2021, the Taliban returned to Kabul as the U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan; in mid-2022, the Aragalayamovement in Sri Lanka forced President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country; in Pakistan in May 2023, the arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan led to widespread protests but the military took charge of the situation; and, in August 2024, protests in Bangladesh gathered momentum forcing PM Sheikh Hasina to quit and leave Dhaka. Hardly surprising that analysts would look for patterns that can fit their models or conspiracy theories.

However, each of these changes has its own history. Sheikh Hasina had been in power since 2009 and the recent elections had been disputed even as she cracked down on the opposition. In Sri Lanka, the Rajapaksa family had been ruling since 2004 with a short interregnum. Myanmar and Pakistan have had long spells of military rule; the military has remained in the driver’s seat – openly as in Myanmar or behind the scenes, as in Pakistan. Afghanistan followed the familiar pattern of failed interventions by the United States – since Vietnam in the 1960s, and in 2021, when it had become apparent that continued U.S. presence in Afghanistan would not help matters.  

If there are similarities, these are primarily the dominant role played by the youth in the protests and secondly, the higher levels of youth unemployment compared to the total unemployment in these societies. While overall unemployment levels in Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka are between 4-5%, youth unemployment is above 16% and in Nepal, above 20%. Politically, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh have had political stability given long tenures of the Rajapaksa brothers and Sheikh Hasina respectively but this led to nepotism, corruption and increasing disdain for democratic accountability.

Nepal’s political transition

In contrast, Nepal’s political trajectory has been different with frequent government changes. Since 2015, when the constitution was adopted, there were seven governments but with the same leaders playing musical chairs, UML leader Oli thrice and both Maoist leader Prachanda and NC leader Sher Bahadur Deuba, each twice. It created a curious internal stability where cronyism, nepotism and corruption flourished, within the outward instability that prevented job growth and economic development.

Nepal’s political transition began 35 years ago. The 1990 Jan Aandolan replaced Panchayati Raj with multi-party democracy and circumscribed the monarchy to a constitutional role. However, intra-party rivalries provided fertile grounds for the monarchy to play favourites. A Maoist insurgency surfaced in 1996 and over a decade, gradually engulfed large parts of the country claiming 17000 lives.

It took 17 years before the political parties came together to work out a peace process that permitted the Maoists to come overground and emerge as a political party. During this period, there were 15 changes of government and one spell of direct rule by King Gyanendra that sparked the second Jan Aandolan in 2006, forcing him to restore parliament and the elected government.

In 2008, an elected Constituent Assembly declared Nepal to be a republic ending the 240-year-old monarchy and began drafting a constitution for a federal republic. Instead of the given two-year deadline, the constitution was promulgated after seven years in 2015. More time was spent on government formations and these seven years witnessed six PMs. Maoist leaders served twice, UML leaders twice, NC once and an interim government was created under Chief Justice Khil Raj Regmi for electing a second constituent assembly in 2013. 

The 1990 and 2006 Jan Aandolans were spearheaded by the political parties to wrest political power from the monarchy but the 2025 Gen Z protests reflect a broader frustration with political leaders of all political parties, for misusing coalition politics for amassing personal wealth.

President Ram Chandra Poudel has reiterated that he will observe the constitution and has sought to justify concerns about the appointment of an Interim PM by citing Article 61. Art 61 merely directs the President to “promote the national unity” and “to abide by and protect the Constitution”. Since a state of national emergency was not declared, Gen Sigdel played a political role in identifying and holding consultations with the Gen Z representatives. The army also moved the targeted leaders and Ministers into military cantonments for their security. Clearly, Mr. Poudel depended on the army because it is the only institution that enjoys social respect.

Ms. Karki has identified three priorities for the Interim Government – to ensure elections on March 5; to fix accountability for the use of excessive force by the police and the arson and vandalism; and to expose and prosecute corruption in high political office. The last two will be difficult as there are reports of politically affiliated gangs infiltrating the Gen Z protests, and fast track prosecutions in Nepali justice system are unheard of.

There is a growing sentiment that the 2015 constitution that introduced a 275 member House of Representatives with First Past The Post (165 seats) and Proportional Representation (110 seats) somehow prevents the emergence of a majority government. Other ideas doing the rounds are to introduce a directly elected executive, and do away with federalism by empowering local bodies. Pushing such ideas through a constitutional commission and national referendums could create more difficulties. Any dilution of federalism or Proportional Representation system is bound to spark protests among the Madhesis, Janjati and Tharu communities.

Such moves into uncharted political territory and questionable legitimacy run contrary to Mr. Paudel’s assurance of abiding by the constitution and may jeopardise the election schedule. The established political parties need time for internal leadership churn that the old timers will resist. New political forces led by youth leaders will emerge and it is likely that some pro-monarchy elements may also sense an opportunity to recover lost ground.

Focus should be on fair elections

Fortunately, India has escaped criticism in Nepali media in connection with the current political turmoil. The restrained official statements and the phone call by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on September 18, to congratulate Ms. Karki, convey condolences at the loss of life, and assure full support to Nepal, keeps communication channels open.  

Peaceful, free and fair elections on March 5 would be best way forward for Nepal; any other ambitious moves by vested interests would only increase uncertainties generating an atmosphere of mistrust and insecurity in which the political gains of the last two decades towards a more democratic and inclusive Nepal would be at risk.

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Political Meltdown in Nepal was a Long Time Coming

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Published in the Hindustan Times on September 11, 2025

 

Tens of thousands of demonstrators, describing themselves as Gen Z, converged near the parliament in Kathmandu on Sept 8, to protest against a ban on 26 social media platforms (including Facebook, WhatsApp, X, Instagram, Reddit, LinkedIn, Signal and YouTube) announced last week for failing to register under the new government guidelines. Even as the police resorted to batons, water cannons, and rubber bullets to disperse the protestors, the crowds continued to grow and by the end of the day, 20 young people (including a 12 year old) were dead, with reports of 400 injured.

The following day, anger had spread to other cities and government buildings including the parliament and Singha Dubar were set on fire. Private houses of leading politicians cutting across party lines, were torched, cars burnt and ministers manhandled. Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak had accepted responsibility and resigned on Sept 8 and the ban order was also reversed but the protestors were not satisfied. Finally, Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli realised that he needed to go and he resigned on Sept 9 in the afternoon. There are rumours that he was evacuated in a helicopter by the army to a secure location as his official residence at Baluwatar was considered vulnerable.   

Nepal’s political transition has been a long time in the making and has gone through multiple transitions. It began with the popular uprising in 1990, labelled as Jan Aandolan 1, leading to a new constitution that laid the foundations of multiparty democracy by curbing the role of an absolute monarchy into a constitutionally circumscribed role. However, in mid-1990s, a Maoist insurgency began to take shape in some of the poorer hill areas that gradually took hold and spread. Infighting between the political parties and the Palace provided a permissive environment for the insurgency to spread and by 2006, it had claimed 17000 lives.

In 2005, King Gyanendra declared a state of emergency, dissolved parliament, dismissed the elected government, and assumed direct rule. A popular pushback led to Jan Aandolan 2 in 2006 that forced him to restore parliament. A peace process between the political parties and the Maoists, facilitated by India, led to the Maoists coming overground and emerging as a political party. Elections for a Constituent Assembly (CA) took place in 2008. The 240-year-old monarchy was abolished, Nepal emerged as a republic, and the CA began work on a new constitution for a Naya (new) Nepal.

After seven years, Nepal adopted its new constitution but the promise of a New Nepal remains a distant dream. A key reason has been weak economic development, lack of employment opportunities, growing corruption, and frequent changes of government. In the 17 years since it became a republic, Nepal has had 15 governments. The situation didn’t improve even after 2015 when the new constitution was adopted, with the last decade accounting for nine of the 17 governments.

Part of the reason is that in none of the elections since 2008 did any party manage to obtain a clear majority necessitating coalitions. This explains the political instability of short-lived coalitions. However, there has been a strange stability too, in that the leaders of the three major parties, Nepali Congress (NC), United Marxist Leninist (UML), and Maoist Centre, have been taking turns in leading the incestuous coalitions and garner the loaves and fishes of office. In the process, corruption grew visibly and the groundswell of public disenchantment was just waiting for a spark that was provided by the ill-conceived ban on the 26 social media platforms, leading to Jan Aandolan 3.   

However, there are differences. The earlier two Jan Aandolans were spearheaded by the political parties, primarily the NC and the UML and had the clear objective of wresting political power from the Monarchy and had an identifiable leadership. The Jan Aandolan 3 rejects the leaders of all political parties and there have been calls for dissolution of the parliament and even revising the constitution.

Second, there is no visible leadership. The 35-year-old Balen Shah, a rapper turned electoral phenomenon, the surprise winner to be elected Mayor of Kathmandu in 2022, is trying to emerge as a leader in Jan Aandolan 3. On September 7, he conveyed support to the protestors and after keeping quiet for a day, came out after PM Oli’s resignation urging restraint.

Another name doing the rounds is the 38-year-old Sudan Gurung, who founded the NGO Hami Nepal (Our Nepal) in 2015 following the devastating earthquake to ensure that humanitarian assistance was delivered efficiently where it was most needed by mobilising youth volunteers. During the past decade, his NGO has been successful in mobilising resources for communities impacted by floods and landslides that take place with depressing regularity. Hami Nepal was heard as a slogan during the protests.

Other than conveying sorrow at the loss of innocent lives, wishing a speedy recovery to the injured, India has expressed hope that “all concerned will exercise restraint and address any issues through peaceful means and dialogue.” To ensure security and with an eye to the forthcoming Bihar elections, the border has been sealed. For the present, this is adequate even as the government remains vigilant and monitors developments to see the political actors that emerge out of the political churn of Jan Aandolan 3.

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